Key takeaways from this month’s data:
- Rolling annual sales opened 2026 on a firmer footing, with both nominal and inflation‑adjusted sales lifting again in January. Nominal sales rose 0.7% MoM and 7.6% YoY, while inflation‑adjusted sales increased 0.5% MoM and 4.7% YoY, returning to levels last seen before the 2022 downturn.
- Total debt for company debtors rose 7.4% year on year, reflecting continued growth in trade credit activity as the new year began.
- Arrears lifted sharply in line with seasonal norms, with 60DPD+ rising 51bps MoM and 90DPD+ up 30bps MoM. Despite this, both measures remain materially lower than a year ago, and Wellington again stood out as the most volatile region with a larger seasonal jump.
- New dwelling consents held steady, with momentum continuing to build across both islands. Rolling annual consents remain strongest in the South Island, up 24.8% since December 2019.
- Across key debtor industries (Construction, Manufacturing, Concrete & Steel, Plumbing & Electrical, Retail, and Food & Beverage) sales trends remain broadly positive, with annual growth strongest in Retail (+15.5% YoY), Food & Beverage (+14.3% YoY) and Manufacturing (+11.8% YoY). Arrears remain generally contained, with risk concentrated in specific regions rather than widespread.
- The rolling annual volume of debtors going ‘bad’ continued to trend higher, up 8.3% year on year, though January saw a small month‑on‑month reprieve.
For the full picture, including industry‑level trends, regional movements, latest arrears and sales insights, you can read the March edition of our Latest Industry Risk Indicators by clicking the button below.
January’s data suggests the year has started with a steadier pulse. Sales are continuing to rebuild, arrears are behaving seasonally but remaining better than a year ago, and construction‑linked activity shows early signs of renewed momentum. As conditions evolve, our focus remains on giving you clear, grounded insights to help you navigate 2026 with confidence and make well‑informed decisions.