March’s data tells an encouraging story, with rolling annual sales surging to their strongest level since before the downturn, arrears falling sharply across most sectors and regions, and winding-up applications continuing to ease year-on-year.
Total debt balances also rose strongly, partly reflecting fuel-price impacts on outstanding balances, though broader trading activity across most vendor sectors also contributed.
- Rolling annual sales hit a new high, with nominal sales up 1.5% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, while inflation-adjusted sales also rose (1.2% MoM, 5.6% YoY), confirming that March’s lift was driven by genuine volume growth, not just price.
- Total debt rose 13.7% year-on-year, partly influenced by fuel-price impacts on outstanding balances, though broader trading activity across most vendor sectors also contributed to the increase.
- Arrears fell sharply across the board, with 60DPD+ down 95bps MoM and 100bps YoY, and 90DPD+ down 39bps MoM and 34bps YoY, one of the more meaningful single-month improvements we’ve seen in recent data.
- Regional arrears improved across all four regions, led by Wellington (-240bps MoM), with Auckland and Christchurch both posting solid improvements. Despite the decline, Wellington continues to sit noticeably higher than the national average.
- Winding-up applications eased significantly, down 43.6% month-on-month and 13.5% year-on-year on a rolling annual basis, a positive signal for insolvency risk across the market.
- ‘Bad’ debtor volumes remain contained, with rolling annual figures up just 0.7% MoM and 3.4% YoY, a modest and slowing rate of deterioration relative to earlier in the cycle.
- New dwelling consents continued their measured recovery, with the smoothed trend rising 2.0% in March. South Island consent growth (+32.8% since Dec-19) continues to significantly outpace the North Island (-9.9%), where activity remains subdued.
- Industry sales growth was broad-based and strong, led by Retail (+16.0% YoY), Food & Beverage (+15.3% YoY), Concrete & Steel (+14.3% YoY), Manufacturing (+12.3% YoY), and Plumbing & Electrical (+11.6% YoY). Construction continued its steady recovery (+2.2% YoY), with Christchurch again the standout regional performer (+18.4% YoY).
- Arrears improved across most industries month-on-month, with Construction (-109bps), Plumbing & Electrical (-159bps), and Manufacturing (-21bps) all easing. Concrete & Steel was the one sector to record a small lift in 60DPD+ (+45bps), though levels remain well below their mid-2025 peak. Retail and Food & Beverage continued to sit at historically low arrears rates.
- Vendor DSO trends were broadly positive, with notable month-on-month improvements across Building Supply Merchants (-5.1%), Electrical Supply Merchants (-10.5%), and Plumbing (-19.7%), all pointing to faster payment cycles and healthier cash flow through the supply chain.
For the full picture, including sector-by-sector detail, regional arrears analysis, and vendor payment trends, download our Latest Industry Risk Indicators, May Edition.